As at January 2024

Trend #1: AI Adoption

• Will have a massive impact in terms of driving underlying productivity (= faster), efficiency (= better) and profitability (= cheaper).
• Will take some time for real widespread adoption (est. 12-24m for first 20-30%), but promises to transform the world economy.
• Immediate impact felt by redundant AI start-ups, creative/marketing agencies, hiring slowdown for junior roles as manual work is done by AI.

Investment Views:

• Microsoft well-positioned (relevant infra, D2C and B2B software, OpenAI partnership) → buy at $250-260 per share.
• NVIDIA to benefit through increased infra requirements → fair value at $450-460 per share. Buy anywhere below $400.
• AMD as credible competitor to NVIDIA → fair value at $110-120 per share. Buy anywhere below $100.

Trend #2: Crypto/Blockchain/DeFin

• After what feels like the cleansing of 2022/23, crypto makes a comeback as a more mature industry.
• Improved public perception/credibility, better understanding from regulators help drive more mainstream adoption.
• Starts to be viewed as a credible safe-haven asset by more than just “crypto bros”. Public piles in more as a hedge against decline of usual public assets.
• Fundamentally new use cases arise, due to digital assets (incl. information) becoming more valuable due to being AI “fuel” and output.

Investment Views:

• Bitcoin as the most credible and well-known coin for laymen. Mid-term target price $100k?
• Solana (SOL) blockchain as a growing competitor to ETH. Price target range $500-1k (recommendation from TV).
• Coinbase as the most credible and well-known transaction platform. Price target $450 (25x PE multiple at 2021 profit levels).